Predviđanje promene morfologije n. vagus-a na osnovu biohemijski markera upale u COVID 19 infekciji
Sažetak
Сажетак
Циљ. Предвиђање површине попречног пресека нерва вагус-а на сонограму, на основу вредности неких биомаркера запаљења у крви.
Методе. Код 68 пацијената са ПЦР(+) тестом за SARS-CoV 2, ултразвуком је мерена површина попречног пресека нерва (CSA), просeк од три мерења. Одређене су вредности CRP, фибриногена и феритина. Вредности CSA са обе стране и сви биомаркери су класификовани као (0)- у границама нормале и (1)- све остале вредности. Урађена је логистичка линеарна регресија и искључена је јака линеарна веза између предиктора. Формирана је неуронска мрежа и модел бинарне логистичке регресије за вредности CSA на десној страни, на левој страни није пронађена веза између одабраних предиктора и CSA вагуса.
Резултати. На десној страни, ЦСА је 1,32±0,3; на левој страни 1,2±0,28. У студији, 11,8%, 22,1% и 8,82% имало је нормалне вредности CRP, фибриногена и феритина. Снажна линеарна повезаност предиктора искључена је линеарном логистичком регресијом. Неуронска мрежа са два скривена слоја и 6 јединица у сваком скривеном слоју формирана је за 2 секунде. Проценат тачности модела у обуци је 91,5%, а на тестирању је 90,5%. AUC овог модела је 0,76 (p=0,018). Логистички бинарни регресиони модел: logitX2D = 18,018+ (20,752к вредности CRP)+ (-38,77к вредности фибриногена)+(2,175к вредности феритина), где је X2D- површина попречног пресека десног н. вагусa, датa моделом. Exp(Б) = 7,5, Psample = 0,88, ОR=56,25, тачност модела је 91,2%, Омнибус тест: χ2=14,193, п=0,003. Коефицијент поузданости модела -2LodLH=35,068 и AUC =0,76, p=0,018. Укупан квалитет модела 0,61. На левој страни, вредност CSA н.вагус-a се не може предвидети коришћењем изабраних предиктора.
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