Predviđanje privredne aktivnosti u Srbiji primenom Serlei indikatora
Sažetak
Blagovremena identifikacija naredne faze privrednog ciklusa, odnosno zaokreta u privrednoj aktivnosti u odnosu na prethodni trend, predstavlja kritičan faktor za uspeh kontraciklične ekonomske poltike. U osnovi rada je konstruisanje novog vodećeg indikatora privrednog ciklusa koji uz određeni vremenski pomak nagoveštava sledeću fazu privrednog ciklusa u Republici Srbiji (SERLEI – Serbian leading economic indicator). SERLEI je testiran u periodu ekspanzije i ulaska privrede Srbije u recesiju da pokaže u kojoj meri je bilo moguće najaviti zaokret u privrednim ciklusima
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