Panel procenjivanje efekata makroekonomskih determinanti na nivo poreskih prihoda u Evropskoj uniji
Sažetak
Nivo poreskih prihoda predstavlja jedno od najvažnijih pitanja za svaku ztemlju, naročito u vanrednim okolnostima. Cilj ovog rada je identifikovati koje makroekonomske determinante su važne za ukupne poreske pirhode kako bi se utvrdilo koje varijable su ključni generatori prikupljanja poreskih prihoda. Predmet ovog istraživanja predstavlja procenjivanje efekata odabranih makroekonomskih determinanti na ukupne poreske prihode u Evropskoj uniji od 2006. do 2018. godine. Empirijska analiza uključuje tri panel regresiona modela gde su ukupni poreski prihodi, prihodi od direktnih poreza i prihodi od indirektnih poreza određeni kao zavisne varijable. Rezultati modela fiksnih efekata prikazuje da povećanje bruto domaćeg proizvoda od 1% poboljšava ukupne poreske prihode za 6.91%. Državni rashodi, ukupne investicije i populacija imaju pozitivne efekte na ukupne poreske prihode, pri čemu rast ovih determinanti od 1% povećava ukupne poreske prihode za 2.38%, 0.001% i 0.57% u posmatranim zemljama. Suprotno, inflacija, nezaposlenost i ukupna štednja stanovništva negativno utiču na ukupne poreske prihode, gde njihov rast za 1% izaziva niži nivo ukupnih poreskih prihoda za 3.72%, 0.001% i 1.48%. Takođe, bruto domaći proizvod i ukupne investicije dovode do veće promene prihoda od direktnih poreza i prihoda od indirektnih poreza. Empirijski nalazi pokazuju da bi se vlade u zemljama EU trebale fokusirati na veću stopu BDP rasta, viši nivo državnih rashoda i ukupnih investicija kako bi poboljšale nivo ukupnih poreskih prihoda.
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