DUGOROČNI TREND MORTALITETA OD RAKA BEŠIKE U SRBIJI, 1991-2024: JOINPOINT REGRESIONA ANALIZA
Sažetak
Uvod/cilj: Rak bešike je među glavnim urološkim bolestima. Trendovi mortaliteta od raka bešike značajno variraju širom sveta. Ovo istraživanje imalo je za cilj da proceni vremenske trendove smrtnih slučajeva od raka bešike u Srbiji.
Metode: Ovo je populaciono zasnovana deskriptivna epidemiološka studija. Podaci o mortalitetu od raka bešike dobijeni su iz zvanične baze podataka. Direktna standardizacija sa svetskom standardnom populacijom korišćena je za izračunavanje stopa standardizovanih po starosti (ASR) na 100.000 stanovnika. Analiza joinpoint regresije korišćena je za procenu vremenskih trendova u smrtnosti od raka bešike, koristeći prosečnu godišnju procentualnu promenu (AAPC) zajedno sa njenim 95% intervalom poverenja (95% CI) u periodu od 1991. do 2024. godine.
Rezultati: U periodu od 1991. do 2024. godine, u Srbiji je zabeleženo skoro 20.000 smrtnih slučajeva zbog raka bešike (oko 15.000 kod muškaraca i 5.000 kod žena). Prosečna godišnja stopa smrtnosti od raka bešike bila je znatno viša kod muškaraca nego kod žena (5,94 prema 3,87 na 100.000, respektivno). Značajno povećanje trenda smrtnosti od raka bešike zabeleženo je i kod muškaraca (AAPC = 0,6%; 95% IC = 0,4 do 0,9) i kod žena (AAPC = 1,3%; 95% IC = 1,0 do 1,5). Trendovi kod muškaraca i žena nisu bili paralelni, jer je konačni izabrani model odbacio paralelizam (p = 0,008). Značajan porast smrtnosti od raka bešike kod žena primećen je u srednjem dobu (starosne grupe od 55 do 69 godina), dok je kod muškaraca izraženiji porast primećen kod starijih osoba (starosne grupe od 70 i više godina).
Zaključak: Povećanje smrtnosti od raka bešike u Srbiji tokom više od tri decenije ukazuje na potrebu za daljim analitičkim istraživanjem.
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