Детерминанте усвајања електричних и хибридних возила: перспективе из Србије
Sažetak
Овај рад истражује факторе који утичу на куповину електричних и хибридних возила у Србији. У раду се истражују социо-демографске карактеристике, друштвени утицај, еколошки фактори и мере јавних политика како би се олакшало разумевање многоструких фактора који утичу на усвајање одрживих алтернатива транспорта у Србији. Коришћење дескриптивне и инференцијалне статистике, стабла одлучивања и логистичке регресије омогућило је објективно истраживање детерминанти које утичу на ставове и намере грађана да купе електрична и хибридна возила. Резултати наглашавају значај позитивног става од стране утицајних појединаца и увођење виших пореза на возила која више загађују као важне факторе који утичу на усвајање електричних и хибридних возила према све три примењене методе. Поред ових фактора, резултати две примењене методе додатно наглашавају значај прихода домаћинства, позитивну друштвену перцепцију ових возила и уверење да електрична и хибридна возила доприносе смањењу загађења. Будући да се старост, место становања, образовање и величина домаћинства не појављују као значајни фактори који утичу на намеру испитаника да купе електрична и хибридна возила, фокус треба усмерити на претходно поменуте факторе. Овако добијени резултати пружају основу за дефинисање политика за промовисање усвајања електричних и хибридних возила у Србији.
Reference
Abas, P.E., & Tan, B. (2024). Modeling the Impact of Different Policies on Electric Vehicle Adoption: An Investigative Study. World Electric Vehicle Journal, 15 (2), 52.
Abbasi, H.A., Johl, S.K., Shaari, Z.B.H., Moughal, W., Mazhar, M., Musarat, M.A., Rafiq, W., Farooqi, A.S., & Borovkov, A. (2021). Consumer Motivation by Using Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology towards Electric Vehicles. Sustainability, 13 (21), 12177.
Alanazi, F. (2023). Electric Vehicles: Benefits, Challenges, and Potential Solutions for Widespread Adaptation. Applied Sciences, 13 (10), 6016.
Allison, P.D. (2012). Logistic Regression Using SAS: Theory and Application (2nd ed.). SAS Publishing.
Anfinsen, M., Lagesen, V.A., & Ryghaug, M. (2019). Green and gendered? Cultural perspectives on the road towards electric vehicles in Norway. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 71, 37–46.
Anwar, A., Younis, M., & Ullah, I. (2020). Impact of Urbanization and Economic Growth on CO₂ Emission: A Case of Far East Asian Countries. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17 (7), 2531.
Asdrubali, F., Carrese, S., Patella, S.M., & Sabatini, L. (2018). Development of Electric Urban Mobility: Comparative Research and Preliminary Survey. European Journal of Sustainable Development Research, 2 (3), 32.
Bergantino, A.S., & Catalano, M. (2016). Individual's Psychological Traits and Urban Travel Behavior. International Journal of Transport Economics, 43 (3), 341–359.
Breiman, L., Friedman, J., Stone, C.J., & Olshen, R.A. (1984). Classification and Regression Trees (1st ed.). Taylor & Francis Group.
Chan, C.C. (2002). The state of the art of electric and hybrid vehicles. Proceedings of the IEEE, 90 (2), 247–275.
Cheung, M.L., Pires, G., & Rosenberger, P.J. (2020). The influence of perceived social media marketing elements on consumer–brand engagement and brand knowledge. Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, 32 (3), 695–720.
Clark, R.A., Haytko, D.L., Hermans, C.M., & Simmers, C.S. (2019). Social Influence on Green Consumerism: Country and Gender Comparisons between China and the United States. Journal of International Consumer Marketing, 31 (3), 177–190.
Cui, L., Wang, Y., Chen, W., Wen, W., & Han, M.S. (2021). Predicting determinants of consumers' purchase motivation for electric vehicles: An application of Maslow's hierarchy of needs model. Energy Policy, 151, 112167.
Delucchi, M.A., Yang, C., Burke, A.F., Ogden, J.M., Kurani, K., Kessler, J., & Sperling, D. (2014). An assessment of electric vehicles: Technology, infrastructure requirements, greenhouse-gas emissions, petroleum use, material use, lifetime cost, consumer acceptance, and policy initiatives. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 372, 20120325.
Doszhanov, A., & Ahmad, Z.A. (2015). Customers' Intention to Use Green Products: The Impact of Green Brand Dimensions and Green Perceived Value. SHS Web of Conferences, 18, 01008.
European Environment Agency - EEA. (2022). Transport and Environment Report 2021: Decarbonising Road Transport - The Role of Vehicles, Fuels and Transport Demand. Retrieved from https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/transport-and-environment-report-2021
European Environment Agency - EEA. (2024). Electric vehicles. Retrieved from https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/topics/in-depth/electric-vehicles?activeTab=07e50b68-8bf2-4641-ba6b-eda1afd544be
Ehsani, M., Gao, Y., & Miller, J.M. (2007). Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Architecture and Motor Drives. Proceedings of the IEEE, 95 (4), 719–728.
European Commission. (2024). Transport. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/transport-emissions_en
Fevang, E., Figenbaum, E., Fridstrøm, L., Halse, A.H., Hauge, K.E., Johansen, B.G., & Raaum, O. (2021). Who goes electric? The anatomy of electric car ownership in Norway. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 92, 102727.
Gass, R.H. (2015). Social Influence, Sociology Of. In J.D. Wright (Ed.), International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences (2nd ed.). Elsevier. 348–354.
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., & Friedman, J. (2009). The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction (2nd ed.). Springer.
He, X., & Hu, Y. (2023). Optimal Mileage of Electric Vehicles Considering Range Anxiety and Charging Times. World Electric Vehicle Journal, 14 (1), 21.
Higueras-Castillo, E., Singh, V., Singh, V., & Liébana-Cabanillas, F. (2024). Factors Affecting Adoption Intention of Electric Vehicle: A Cross-Cultural Study. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 26, 29293–29329.
Hosmer Jr., D.W., Lemeshow, S., & Sturdivant, R.X. (2013). Applied Logistic Regression (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Huang, Y., Surawski, N.C., Organ, B., Zhou, J.L., Tang, O.H.H., & Chan, E.F.C. (2019). Fuel consumption and emissions performance under real driving: Comparison between hybrid and conventional vehicles. Science of The Total Environment, 659, 275–282.
Ivanova, G., & Moreira, A.C. (2023). Antecedents of Electric Vehicle Purchase Intention from the Consumer's Perspective: A Systematic Literature Review. Sustainability, 15 (4), 2878.
Khazaei, H. (2019). The datasets of factors influencing adoption of electric Cars in Malaysia: A structural equation modelling (SEM) analysis. Data in Brief, 27, 104644.
Khazaei, H., & Tareq, M.A. (2021). Moderating effects of personal innovativeness and driving experience on factors influencing adoption of BEVs in Malaysia: An integrated SEM–BSEM approach. Heliyon, 7(9), e08072.
Kojić, M., Schlüter, S., Mitić, P., & Hanić, A. (2022). Economy-Environment Nexus in Developed European Countries: Evidence from Multifractal and Wavelet Analysis. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 160, 112189.
Lashari, Z.A., Ko, J., & Jang, J. (2021). Consumers' Intention to Purchase Electric Vehicles: Influences of User Attitude and Perception. Sustainability, 13 (12), 6778.
Limon, M.H., Debnath, B., & Bari, A.B.M.M. (2023). Exploration of the drivers influencing the growth of hybrid electric vehicle adoption in the emerging economies: Implications towards sustainability and low-carbon economy. Sustainable Operations and Computers, 4, 76–87.
Lopes, M.M., Moura, F., & Martinez, L.M. (2014). A rule-based approach for determining the plausible universe of electric vehicle buyers in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 59, 22–36.
Luchs, M.G., & Mooradian, T.A. (2012). Sex, Personality, and Sustainable Consumer Behaviour: Elucidating the Gender Effect. Journal of Consumer Policy, 35, 127–144.
Mastoi, M.S., Zhuang, S., Munir, H.M., Haris, M., Hassan, M., Usman, M., Bukhari, S.S.H., & Ro, J.-S. (2022). An in-depth analysis of electric vehicle charging station infrastructure, policy implications, and future trends. Energy Reports, 8, 11504–11529.
Mekky, M.F., & Collins, A.R. (2024). The impact of state policies on electric vehicle adoption: A panel data analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 191, 114014.
Mohammadzadeh, N., Zegordi, S.H., Kashan, A.H., & Nikbakhsh, E. (2022). Optimal government policy-making for the electric vehicle adoption using the total cost of ownership under the budget constraint. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 33, 477–507.
Nagelkerke, N.J.D. (1991). A note on a general definition of the coefficient of determination. Biometrika, 78 (3), 691–692.
Novotny, A., Szeberin, I., Kovács, S., & Máté, D. (2022). National Culture and the Market Development of Battery Electric Vehicles in 21 Countries. Energies, 15 (4), 1539.
Okada, T., Tamaki, T., & Managi, S. (2019). Effect of environmental awareness on purchase intention and satisfaction pertaining to electric vehicles in Japan. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 67, 503-513.
Pajic, N., Jurišević, N., & Despotovic, M. (2024). Adoption of electric vehicles in the Republic of Serbia. Transportation in Developing Economies, 10 (2), 33.
Pandita, D., Bhatt, V., Kumar, V.V.R., Fatma, A., & Vapiwala, F. (2024). Electrifying the future: Analyzing the determinants of electric vehicle adoption. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 18 (6), 1767-1786.
Pevec, D., Babic, J., Carvalho, A., Ghiassi-Farrokhfal, Y., Ketter, W., & Podobnik, V. (2020). A survey-based assessment of how existing and potential electric vehicle owners perceive range anxiety. Journal of Cleaner Production, 276, 122779.
Plananska, J., Wüstenhagen, R., & De Bellis, E. (2023). Perceived lack of masculinity as a barrier to adoption of electric cars? An empirical investigation of gender associations with low-carbon vehicles. Travel Behaviour and Society, 32, 100593.
Puška, A., Stojanović, I., & Štilić, A. (2023). The Influence of Objective Weight Determination Methods on Electric Vehicle Selection in Urban Logistics. J. Intell. Manag. Decis., 2(3), 117-129. https://doi.org/10.56578/jimd020302
Qorbani, D., Korzilius, H.P.L.M., & Fleten, S.-E. (2024). Ownership of battery electric vehicles is uneven in Norwegian households. Communications Earth & Environment, 5, 170.
Rafique, S., & Town, G.E. (2018). Potential for Electric Vehicle Adoption in Australia. International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, 13 (4), 245–254.
Rauh, N., Franke, T., & Krems, J.F. (2014). Understanding the Impact of Electric Vehicle Driving Experience on Range Anxiety. Human Factors, 57 (1), 177–187.
Sovacool, B.K., Kester, J., Noel, L., & De Rubens, G.Z. (2018). The demographics of decarbonizing transport: The influence of gender, education, occupation, age, and household size on electric mobility preferences in the Nordic region. Global Environmental Change, 52, 86–100.
Statista. (2024). Electric vehicles– Serbia: Statista market forecast. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/electric-vehicles/serbia
Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. (2024). Report on Municipalities and Regions in the Republic of Serbia. Retrieved from https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2023/Pdf/G202313050.pdf
Tian, H., Xu, R., Canadell, J.G., Thompson, R. L., Winiwarter, W., Suntharalingam, P., Davidson, E.A., Ciais, P., Jackson, R.B., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Prather, M.J., Regnier, P., Pan, N., Pan, S., Peters, G.P., Shi, H., Tubiello, F.N., Zaehle, S., Zhou, F., ... Yao, Y. (2020). A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks. Nature, 586 (7828), 248–256.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - UNFCCC. (2022). Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of the Republic of Serbia for the 2021–2030 Period. Retrieved from https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/202-08/NDC%20Final_Serbia%20english.pdf
Wang, M., Liu, K., Yu, J., Zhang, C.-C., Zhang, Z., & Tan, Q. (2022). Recycling spent lithium-ion batteries using a mechanochemical approach. Circular Economy, 1 (2), 100012.
World Bank. (2023a). Policies to improve the environmental performance of road vehicles in the Western Balkans. Retrieved from https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099060624023516195/pdf/P50218114f0b1701d1b4ff14b11be33bf6c.pdf
World Bank. (2023b). Environmental and climate performance of the transport sector in Western Balkans: Key challenges and recommendations. Retrieved from https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099061924100561127/pdf/P5021811bef50708a188c0176095fb5ef06.pdf
Xia, Z., Wu, D., & Zhang, L. (2022). Economic, Functional, and Social Factors Influencing Electric Vehicles' Adoption: An Empirical Study Based on the Diffusion of Innovation Theory. Sustainability, 14 (10), 6283.
Yuan, Q., Hao, W., Su, H., Bing, G., Gui, X., & Safikhani, A. (2018). Investigation on Range Anxiety and Safety Buffer of Battery Electric Vehicle Drivers. Journal of Advanced Transportation, 2018, 301209.
ZEV Transition Council. (2024). Roadmap to 2030: Enabling a Global Transition to Zero Emission Vehicles. Retrieved from https://zevtc.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Global-Roadmap_Nov-2023.pdf
Zhao, Z., Gong, Y., Li, Y., Zhang, L., & Sun, Y. (2021). Gender-related beliefs, norms, and the link with green consumption. Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 710239.
The Author wishes to submit the Work to SJM for publication. To enable SJM to publish the Work and to give effect to the parties’ intention set forth herein, they have agreed to cede the first right to publication and republication in the SJM Journal.
Cession
The Author hereby cedes to SJM, who accepts the cession, to the copyright in and to the paper.
The purpose of the cession is to enable SJM to publish the Work, as first publisher world-wide, and for republication in the SJM Journal, and to grant the right to others to publish the Work world-wide, for so long as such copyright subsists;
SJM shall be entitled to edit the work before publication, as it deems fit, subject to the Authors approval
The Author warrants to SJM that:
- the Author is the owner of the copyright in the Work, whether as author or as reassigned from the Author’s employee and that the Author is entitled to cede the copyright to SJM;
- the paper (or any of its part) is not submitted or accepted for publication in any other Journal;
- the Work is an original work created by the Author;
- the Author has not transferred, ceded, or assigned the copyright, or any part thereof, to any third party; or granted any third party a licence or other right to the copyright, which may affect or detract from the rights granted to SJM in terms of this agreement.
The Author hereby indemnifies the SJM as a body and its individual members, to the fullest extent permitted in law, against all or any claims which may arise consequent to the warranties set forth.
No monetary consideration shall be payable by SJM to the Author for the cession, but SJM shall clearly identify the Author as having produced the Work and ensure that due recognition is given to the Author in any publication of the Work.
Should SJM, in its sole discretion, elect not to publish the Work within 1 year after the date of this agreement, the cession shall lapse and be of no further effect. In such event the copyright shall revert to the Author and SJM shall not publish the Work, or any part thereof, without the Author’s prior written consent.
