Journal of Regional Security

Extreme Moderates: Understanding Low Levels of Violent Extremism in Bosnia-Herzegovina

Sejla Pehlivanovic — 2024-07-24

How can low levels of violent extremism in enabling environments be explained? The conflicted political environment and war history of Bosnia-Herzegovina have allowed extra-institutional groups to challenge formal institutions. Despite this, there have been few violent extremist attacks, and those that have been carried out were small-scale and failed to expose any deep reservoir of violent extremism. What, then, does this deviant case reveal? Utilizing social movement theory and political opportunity structures, the article explores how structural conditions in the Bosnian political and discursive space affect the protest repertoires of extremist movements. Two main arguments are put forward. First, extra-institutional groups must be understood as rational actors with broader claims that exceed the use of violence. Second, distinguishing between radicalization that links to violent extremism and radicalization that aims to initiate societal change through non-violent means can help us better understand the dynamics behind societal change in fragile environments.

Providing and depriving a sense of ontological security: EU enlargement in North Macedonia

Aleksandar Jekić — 2024-12-13

The paper seems to analyse in which ways EU accession can act as a potential source of ontological (in)security by using the case of North Macedonia. After outlining the social and material environment that constitutes the Macedonian identity and in turn acts as a source of ontological security, a qualitative content analysis of 61 text units that were authored by members of Macedonian parliamentary parties is employed. The sample of texts is thereby centred around two critical situations that contested the social and material environment of the Macedonian identity, namely the announcement of the Bulgarian veto in 2020 and the acceptance of the French proposal in 2022. The results of the analysis demonstrate that EU enlargement can both serve as a source of ontological security and insecurity. While governmental parties see EU membership as a protection of the Macedonian identity, the opposition connects the current enlargement framework to its disappearance. Through support from the public and the low credibility of the enlargement policy, the perceived threat towards the own identity that is articulated by the opposition can further slowdown North Macedonia’s pathways to EU membership. The article, therefore, illustrates how an accession process can become deadlocked due to ontological insecurity of parts of the political elite, underlining the importance of intra-state dynamics for the understanding of cases of ontological security.

Stealth Conflicts: Unpacking the Causes of Underreported and Invisible Wars

Lucie Konecna — 2024-12-13

This study aims to identify the necessary and sufficient conditions that contribute to categorizing certain conflicts as "stealth," meaning significant yet underreported or overlooked, as opposed to conflicts well-covered by the media. Focusing on cases in Asia and Africa from 2014 to 2024, the research employs qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to assess six conditions for the conflict to be recognized as a stealth conflict derived from Hawkins' theory which explains that conflicts are overlooked when key actors (policy makers, media, the public, and academia) are not engaged due to factors such as national/political interest, geographic proximity and access, ability to identify with conflict participants, ability to sympathize with victims, simplicity (how easy it is to understand a conflict) and sensationalism (involves events that are dramatic and attention-grabbing). Our findings suggest that a lack of simplicity and limited sensationalism are key factors in hindering the visibility of conflicts, especially in regions like West Papua and Balochistan. The analysis reveals that there are two necessary conditions and three sufficient conditions that influence the visibility of conflicts.

Shadows of Empire

John Hardy — 2024-12-27

The post-Soviet period has seen dramatic political upheaval across Eastern Europe and the Caucuses. The shadow cast by centuries of Russian influence on Eurasia still affects political tensions in the region. Previous studies have examined both Russian foreign policy in the twenty-first century and the implications of parastates on Russia’s periphery. This study focuses on the intersection of these issues, identifying parastates as a political wedge used by Moscow to maintain buffer states between its borders and NATO. It presents a comparative analysis of three parastates that are supported by Russia: Transnistria in Moldova, Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. The study finds that Russia supports post-Soviet parastates to perpetuate political stalemates that undermine stability in countries that act as buffers between Russian and NATO borders. This highlights opportunities for further research on a foreign policy tool that can be used to significantly influence regional security.

Book Review: Robert Jervis´s "How Statesmen Think"

Juliane Wesselmann — 2024-12-13