METHODS AND TECHNIQUES FOR ESTIMATING CONCEPTUAL COSTS IN PUBLIC HIGHWAY PROJECTS: A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW
Abstract
Accurate cost estimation during the conceptual phase of public highway construction is essential for effective transportation planning and budgeting. This paper reviews techniques and methods for initial cost estimation in highway projects, focusing on accuracy, trends, and key cost drivers. The research methodology involved selecting relevant papers by reviewing titles, abstracts, keywords, and full texts during the final stage. This process yielded 87 relevant publications and 33 cost estimation methods and techniques spanning the period from 1980 to 2025. The study found that artificial neural networks, machine learning, and regression analysis are the most used methods for predicting costs early in projects, with machine learning techniques showing the highest accuracy. Among the 184 cost drivers reviewed, 50 were grouped into five categories, providing a basis for selecting critical inputs during the planning phase of cost estimation for highway projects. A thorough review of the research literature highlights gaps and provides recommendations for future studies to focus on the use of advanced technologies to improve cost estimation. Specifically, employing GIS and 3D terrain models, along with geomechanical data, can help accurately calculate the quantities of all items in the bill of quantities. Such advancements are expected to enhance the precision of conceptual cost estimation in highway construction.
References
Wilmot, C. G., & Cheng, G. (2003). Estimating future highway construction costs. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(3), 272–279. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2003)129:3(272)
AASHTO. (2013). Practical guide to cost estimating. AASHTO. https://store.transportation.org/Item/CollectionDetail?ID=122
AACE International. (2020). 56R-08: Cost estimate classification system – As applied in engineering, procurement, and construction for the building and general construction industries. AACE. https://www.pathlms.com/aace/courses/2928/documents/3839
Project Management Institute. (2021). A guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK® guide) (7th ed.). PMI. https://www.pmi.org/standards/pmbok
Karaca, I., Gransberg, D. D., & Jeong, H. D. (2020). Improving the accuracy of early cost estimates on transportation infrastructure projects. Journal of Management in Engineering, 36(5), 04020063. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000819
Flyvbjerg, B., Holm, M. S., & Buhl, S. (2002). Underestimating costs in public works projects: Error or lie? Journal of the American Planning Association, 68(3), 279–295. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944360208976273
Gabel, M., Sujka, M., Davis, Z. W., & Keizur, A. E. (2022). Performance of risk-based estimating for capital projects. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2667(1), 1059–1070. https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981221103238
Thurairajah, N., Xiao, H., Boyd, D., & Reed, A. (2018). Challenges of early estimation of infrastructure projects within the UK: An information perspective. In 34th Annual Conference: A Productive Relationship—Balancing Fragmentation and Integration (ARCOM 2018) (pp. 440–449). ARCOM. https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/38364
Akinradewo, O. I., Aigbavboa, C. O., & Oke, A. (2020a). Accuracy of road construction preliminary estimate: Examining the influencing factors. Built Environment Project and Asset Management, 10(5), 657–671. https://doi.org/10.1108/BEPAM-11-2019-0101
Akinradewo, O. I., Aigbavboa, C. O., & Oke, A. E. (2020b). Improving the accuracy of road projects’ estimates in the Ghanaian construction industry. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 35(3), 407–421. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFMPC-11-2019-0087
Torp, O., Belay, A. M., Thodesen, C., & Klakegg, O. J. (2016). Cost development over time at the construction planning phase: Empirical evidence from Norwegian construction projects. Procedia Engineering, 145, 1177–1184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.04.152
Baek, M., & Ashuri, B. (2021). Synthesis of practices and tools for cost estimation and cost management for transportation projects. Journal for the Advancement of Performance Information and Value, 13(1), 22–46. https://doi.org/10.37265/japiv.v13i1.132
Barakchi, M., Torp, O., & Belay, A. M. (2017). Cost estimation methods for transport infrastructure: A systematic literature review. Procedia Engineering, 196, 270–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.07.199
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2007). Guidance for cost estimation and management for highway projects during planning, programming, and preconstruction. National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/14014
Harper, C. M., Molenaar, K. R., Anderson, S., & Schexnayder, C. (2014). Synthesis of performance measures for highway cost estimating. Journal of Management in Engineering, 30(3), 04014005. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000244
Kermanshachi, S., & Safapour, E. (2020). Gap analysis in cost estimation, risk analysis, and contingency computation of transportation infrastructure projects: A guide to resource- and policy-based strategy establishment. Practice Periodical on Structural Design and Construction, 25(1), 06019004. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)SC.1943-5576.0000460
Al-Tabtabai, H., Alex, A. P., & Tantash, M. (1999). Preliminary cost estimation of highway construction using neural networks. Cost Engineering, 41(3), 19–24.
Markow, J. M., & Aw, W. B. (1983). Estimating road construction costs for sector planning in developing countries. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 898, 52–61. http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1983/898/898-009.pdf
Bell, L. C., & Kaminsky, A. (1987). Database for preliminary cost estimating. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 114(4), 341–347. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(1987)113:4(341)
Walton, J. R., & Stevens, J. D. (1997). Improving conceptual estimating methods using historical cost data. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1575, 127–131. https://doi.org/10.3141/1575-18
Kyte, C. A., Perfater, M. A., Haynes, S. N., & Lee, H. F. (2004). Developing and validating a tool to estimate highway construction project costs. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1885, 35–41. https://doi.org/10.3141/1885-06
Chou, J. S. (2005). Item-level quantity-based preliminary cost estimating system for highway earthwork, landscape, subgrade treatments, base, surface courses, pavement, and traffic control (Doctoral dissertation, University of Texas at Austin). http://hdl.handle.net/2152/1845
Chou, J.-S., & O’Connor, J. T. (2007). Internet-based preliminary highway construction cost estimating database. Automation in Construction, 17(1), 65–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2007.03.001
Burhan, A. M. (2022). An optimization model to estimate the construction costs of highways projects: Al-Rihab highway as a case study. In M. O. Karkush & D. Choudhury (Eds.), Geotechnical engineering and sustainable construction (pp. 739–748). Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-6277-5_59
Sodikov, J. (2006). Development level of analysis for road cost models. The Baltic Journal of Road and Bridge Engineering, 1(3), 129–134. https://bjrbe-journals.rtu.lv/bjrbe/article/view/1822-427X.2006.3.129–134
Oladele, A. S., Adedimila, A. S., & Adeyemi, A. Y. (2009). Cost modelling for highway construction in developing countries using econometric views analysis: A case study of Nigeria. In 11th Biennial Conference (pp. 256–264). Institution of Engineers Biennial Conference. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/30167
Chou, J.-S. (2009). Generalized linear model-based expert system for estimating the cost of transportation projects. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(3), 4253–4267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2008.03.017
Mahamid, I., & Bruland, A. (2010). Preliminary cost estimating models for road construction activities. In FIG Congress 2010: Facing the challenges – Building the capacity (pp. 1–13). International Federation of Surveyors (FIG). https://www.fig.net/resources/proceedings/fig
Salar, A., & Noori, A. (2020). Pre-design cost modeling of road projects. Tikrit Journal of Engineering Sciences, 27(1), 6–11. https://doi.org/10.25130/tjes.27.1.02
Mahamid, I. (2011). Early cost estimating for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques. Construction Economics and Building, 11(4), 87–101. https://doi.org/10.5130/AJCEB.v11i4.2195
Ogungbile, A. J., Oke, A. E., & Rasak, K. (2018). Developing cost model for preliminary estimate of road projects in Nigeria. International Journal of Sustainable Real Estate and Construction Economics, 1(2), 182–199. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSRECE.2018.092277
Rasheed, R. H., & Rezouki, S. E. (2022). Cost prediction of roads construction projects using OLS regression method. In M. O. Karkush & D. Choudhury (Eds.), Geotechnical engineering and sustainable construction (pp. 671–680). Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-6277-5_53
Amadi, A. (2021). The statistical sensitivity of highway project cost to geo-heterogeneity in the tropics. International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation, 41(4), 875–902. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJBPA-02-2021-0012
Zhang, Y., Minchin, R. E., & Agdas, D. (2017). Forecasting the completed cost of highway construction projects using LASSO regularized regression. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(10), 04017071. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001378
Tong, B., Guo, J., & Fang, S. (2021). Predicting budgetary estimate of highway construction projects in China based on GRA-LASSO. Journal of Management in Engineering, 37(3), 04021012. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000890
Atapattu, C. N., Domingo, N., & Sutrisna, M. (2024). A conceptual cost estimation model for the pre-design stage of road projects using multiple regression analysis. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 29(1), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFMPC-08-2023-0052
Adeli, H., & Wu, M. (1998). Regularization neural network for construction cost estimation. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 124(1), 18–24. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1998)124:1(18)
Gante, D. V., Silva, D. L., & Leopoldo, M. P. (2022). Forecasting construction cost using artificial neural network for road projects in the department of public works and highways region XI. In A. J. Tallón-Ballesteros (Ed.), Frontiers in artificial intelligence and applications (pp. 64–71). IOS Press. https://doi.org/10.3233/FAIA220084
Cirilovic, J., Vajdic, N., Mladenovic, G., & Queiroz, C. (2014). Developing cost estimation models for road rehabilitation and reconstruction: Case study of projects in Europe and Central Asia. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(3), 04013065. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000817
Sodikov, J. (2005). Cost estimation of highway projects in developing countries: Artificial neural network approach. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 6, 1036–1047. https://doi.org/10.11175/EASTS.6.1036
Sodikov, J. (2009). Road cost models for prefeasibility studies in developing countries. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 15(4), 278–289. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2009)15:4(278)
Wilmot, C. G., & Mei, B. (2005). Neural network modeling of highway construction costs. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(7), 765–771. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2005)131:7(765)
Elbeltagi, E., Hosny, O., Abdel-Razek, R., & El-Fitory, A. (2014). Conceptual cost estimate of Libyan highway projects using artificial neural network. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications, 4(8), 56–66. https://ijera.com/papers/Vol4_issue8/Version%205/I48055666.pdf
Gardner, B. J., Gransberg, D. D., & Rueda, J. A. (2017). Stochastic conceptual cost estimating of highway projects to communicate uncertainty using bootstrap sampling. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 3(3), 05016002. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRU A6.0000895
Khaleel, T. A. M. (2015). Development of the artificial neural network model for prediction of Iraqi express ways construction cost. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, 6(10), 62–76.
Al-Zwainy, F. M. S., & Aidan, I. A. (2017). Forecasting the cost of structure of infrastructure projects utilizing artificial neural network model (highway projects as case study). Indian Journal of Science and Technology, 10(20), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.17485/IJST/2017/v10i20/108567
Barros, L. B., Marcy, M., & Carvalho, M. T. (2018). Construction cost estimation of Brazilian highways using artificial neural networks. International Journal of Structural and Civil Engineering Research, 7(3), 283–289. https://doi.org/10.18178/IJSCER.7.3.283-289
Mahalakshmi, G., & Rajasekaran, C. (2018). Early cost estimation of highway projects in India using artificial neural network. In B. Das & N. Neithalath (Eds.), Lecture notes in civil engineering (pp. 659–672). Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-3317-0_59
Tijanić, K., Car-Pušić, D., & Šperac, M. (2019). Cost estimation in road construction using artificial neural network. Neural Computing and Applications, 32, 9343–9355. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-019-04443-y
Suneja, N., Shah, J. P., Shah, Z. H., & Holia, M. S. (2021). A neural network approach to design reality-oriented cost estimate model for infrastructure projects. Reliability: Theory and Applications, 16(1), 254–263.
Gardner, B. J., Gransberg, D. D., & Jeong, H. D. (2016). Reducing data-collection efforts for conceptual cost estimating at a highway agency. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(11), 04016057. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001174
Zhang, Y., & Minchin, R. E. (2016). Parametric cost estimation of resurfacing projects using ridge regression and a generalized feedforward neural network. In C. C. Fu, M. Najafi, & M. Al-Hussein (Eds.), Construction Research Congress 2016 (pp. 718–728). ASCE. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784479827.073
Zhang, Y. (2017). Preliminary cost estimation of public transportation projects using data-driven based methods (Doctoral dissertation, University of Florida). https://ufdcimages.uflib.ufl.edu/UF/E0/05/09/43/00001/ZHANG_Y.pdf
Acharya, B., & Karki, S. (2022). Artificial neural networks for cost estimation of road projects in Nepal. In Proceedings of 12th IOE Graduate Conference (pp. 1674–1682). Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University. http://conference.ioe.edu.np/publications/ioegc12/
Zhang, Y., Minchin, R. E., Flood, I., & Ries, R. J. (2023). Preliminary cost estimation of highway projects using statistical learning methods. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 149(5). https://doi.org/10.1061/JCEMD4.COENG-12773
Xue, X., Jia, Y., & Tang, Y. (2020). Expressway project cost estimation with a convolutional neural network model. IEEE Access, 8, 217848–217866. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3042329
Kim, D. Y., Kim, B., & Han, S. H. (2008). Two-staged early cost estimation for highway construction projects. In E. K. Zavadskas, A. Kaklauskas, & M. Skibniewski (Eds.), Proceedings of the 25th International Symposium on Automation and Robotics in Construction (pp. 490–495). IAARC. https://doi.org/10.22260/ISARC2008/0072
Kim, S. (2013). Hybrid forecasting system based on case-based reasoning and analytic hierarchy process for cost estimation. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 19(1), 86–96. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2012.737829
Choi, S., Kim, D. Y., Han, S. H., & Kwak, Y. H. (2014). Conceptual cost-prediction model for public road planning via rough set theory and case-based reasoning. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(1), 04013026. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000743
Adel, K., Elyamany, A., Belal, A. M., & Kotb, A. S. (2016). Developing parametric model for conceptual cost estimate of highway projects. International Journal of Engineering Science and Computing, 6(7), 1728–1734. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337306670
Zima, K. (2015). The case-based reasoning model of cost estimation at the preliminary stage of a construction project. Procedia Engineering, 122, 57–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2015.10.007
Hegazy, T., & Ayed, A. (1998). Neural network model for parametric cost estimation of highway projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 124(3), 210–218. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1998)124:3(210)
Lu, Y., Luo, X., & Zhang, H. (2011). A gene expression programming algorithm for highway construction cost prediction problems. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 11(6), 85–92. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1570-6672(10)60150-X
Gransberg, D. D., Jeong, H. D., Karaca, I., & Gardner, B. (2017). Top-down construction cost estimating model/guide using a neural network. Montana Department of Transportation. https://doi.org/10.21949/1518289
Mahdavian, A., Shojaei, A., Salem, M., Yuan, J. S., & Oloufa, A. A. (2021). Data-driven predictive modeling of highway construction cost items. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(3). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001991
El-Sawalhi, N. I. (2015). Support vector machine cost estimation model for road projects. Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 9(9), 1115–1125. https://doi.org/10.17265/1934-7359/2015.09.012
Peško, I., Mučenski, V., Šešlija, M., Radović, N., Vujkov, A., Bibić, D., & Krklješ, M. (2017). Estimation of costs and durations of construction of urban roads using ANN and SVM. Complexity, 2017, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/2450370
Petrusheva, S., Car-Pušić, D., & Zileska-Pancovska, V. (2019). Support vector machine based hybrid model for prediction of road structures construction costs. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 222(1), 012010. IOP Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/222/1/012010
Mohamed, B., & Moselhi, O. (2022). Conceptual estimation of construction duration and cost of public highway projects. Journal of Information Technology in Construction, 27(1), 595–618. https://doi.org/10.36680/j.itcon.2022.029
Cao, Y. (2019). Modeling and predicting the variation of US highway construction cost (Doctoral dissertation, Georgia Institute of Technology). http://hdl.handle.net/1853/61237
Simić, N., Ivanišević, N., Nedeljković, Đ., Senić, A., Stojadinović, Z., & Ivanović, M. (2023). Early highway construction cost estimation: Selection of key cost drivers. Sustainability, 15(6), 5584. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15065584
Meharie, M., & Shaik, N. (2020). Predicting highway construction costs: Comparison of the performance of random forest, neural network, and support vector machine models. Journal of Soft Computing in Civil Engineering, 4(2), 103–112. https://doi.org/10.22115/SCCE.2020.226883.1205
Meharie, M. G., Mengesha, W. J., Gariy, Z. A., & Mutuku, R. N. N. (2021). Application of stacking ensemble machine learning algorithm in predicting the cost of highway construction projects. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 29(7), 2836–2853. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-02-2020-0128
Abed, Y. G., Hasan, T. M., & Zehawi, R. N. (2022). Cost prediction for road construction using machine learning models. International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering Systems, 13(10), 927–936. https://doi.org/10.32985/IJECES.13.10.8
Yu, W., & Fu, J. (2004). A web agent for conceptual cost estimation of highway construction projects. In C. T. Haas & W. F. F. Santiago (Eds.), Proceedings of the 21st International Symposium on Automation and Robotics in Construction (IAARC) (pp. 1–6). IAARC. https://doi.org/10.22260/ISARC2004/0114
Meharie, M. G., Gariy, Z. C. A., Ndisya Mutuku, R. N., & Mengesha, W. J. (2019). An effective approach to input variable selection for preliminary cost estimation of construction projects. Advances in Civil Engineering, 2019, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/4092549
Idrus, A., Nuruddin, M. F., & Rohman, M. (2011). Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(3), 1501–1508. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2010.07.061
Asmar, M. E., Hanna, A. S., & Whited, G. C. (2011). New approach to developing conceptual cost estimates for highway projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 942–949. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000355
Allahaim, F. S., Liu, L., & Kong, X. (2017). A risk-based cost contingency estimation model for infrastructure projects. In Y. Wang, M. Al-Hussein, G. O. P. Shen, & Y. Zhu (Eds.), International Conference on Construction and Real Estate Management (pp. 1293–1303). ASCE. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784480274.160
Hannan, A. H., Ahmed, A. A., Ashraf, T. A., & Bai, Q. A. (2016). Estimation of highway project cost using probabilistic technique. In H. Wang, Y. Liu, & Z. You (Eds.), First International Conference on Transportation Infrastructure and Materials (ICTIM 2016) (pp. 423–430). DEStech Publications. https://doi.org/10.12783/dtetr/ictim2016/5523
Babaei, M., Rashidi-Baqhi, A., & Rashidi, M. (2022). Estimating project cost under uncertainty using universal generating function method. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(2), 04021119. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0002233
Peng, M. (2006). Item-level quantity-based preliminary cost estimating system for highway structures and miscellaneous construction (Doctoral dissertation, University of Texas at Austin). http://hdl.handle.net/2152/2607
Chou, J.-S., Peng, M., Persad, K. R., & O’Connor, J. T. (2006). Quantity-based approach to preliminary cost estimates for highway projects. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1946(1), 22–30. https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198106194600103
Welde, M., & Odeck, J. (2017). Cost escalations in the front-end of projects: Empirical evidence from Norwegian road projects. Transport Reviews, 37(5), 612–630. https://doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2016.1278285
Blampied, N. B. (2018). Parametric functions for conceptual and feasibility estimating in public highway project portfolios (Doctoral dissertation, University of California, Berkeley). https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5ks29694
Park, T., Kang, T., Lee, Y., & Seo, K. (2014). Project cost estimation of national road in preliminary feasibility stage using BIM/GIS platform. In G. Flintsch, W. Huang, H. Wang, C. Zhou, & M. Zheng (Eds.), Proceedings of the International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering (pp. 423–430). ASCE. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413616.053
Morovvati, S., Fürstenberg, D., & Lædre, O. (2021). Model-based cost estimation for infrastructure projects: A case study. In 38th International Conference of CIB W78 (pp. 263–271). CIB W78. https://itc.scix.net/pdfs/w78-2021-paper-027.pdf
