The traffic intensity and the number of traffic accidents based on probability theory and mathematical statistic forecasting
Abstract
Based on the collected experimental data on the number of vehicles moving along the street and road network of the urban agglomeration, a theoretical approach to predicting the number of vehicles based on mathematical statistics and probability theory is developed in the article. The obtained results of the intensity of vehicle traffic forecasting, together with the processed statistical data on the number of traffic accidents, make it possible to identify places with increased traffic accident rates for predicting the number of traffic accidents. The theoretical approach to predicting the number of traffic accidents was obtained on the basis of the two-parameter Weibull distribution law. It allows you to assess the road traffic situation in an urban agglomeration with the subsequent implementation and implementation of organizational and technical measures to reduce road deaths. Despite the implemented federal target programs «Improving road safety for 2006-2012», «Improving road safety for 2013-2020», «Road Safety Strategy of the Russian Federation», the national project «Safe high-quality roads», «Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2030 with a forecast until 2035», various models for reducing road deaths, including forecasting models aimed at improving road safety, are a global problem that requires rapid solutions, the level of road safety remains worldwide [1-4].
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